Wednesday, January 22, 2014

There are the Yankees of Old



The Yankees have retreated to their roots with an over the top offseason signing. Early Wednesday morning, the Yankees signed Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka  for 7years/155 million dollars. The Yankees will pay an additional 20 million to the Rakuten Golden Eagles, Tanaka's previous team to buy out his remaining contract.

What does this mean for the Yankees? They get a pitcher who at 25, is coming off a season in which he went 24-0 with 1.27 ERA in the Japanese League. Everything points to signs that he may be just as good as the Rangers Yu Darvish. Tanaka has the option to opt out of the deal after the 4th year.

Is he really worth 22mil/year? Time will tell. He got a huge contract because the Yankees needed a stud pitcher and needed one three years ago. Darvish only signed a 6yr/56mil deal in 2012 (Although the Rangers paid 50 million to buy out his previous contract) and that seems to be a below market deal thus far. Tanaka's price went up because of Darvish' success and the Yankees' needs.

Tanaka's numbers compared to Darvish's numbers in Japan are strikingly similar. From the same age of 18-24, they both posted sub 2.40 ERA, recorded 90 plus wins, and at a winning percentage north of 70%.

Japanese Leagues Pitching

 TANAKA'S STATISTICS
YearAgeTmLgLevAffWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
200718RakutenJPPLFgn117.6113.822828410186.118383791768219671108001.3478.80.83.39.52.88
200819RakutenJPPLFgn97.5633.492524521172.2171716795431592067261.3038.90.52.88.32.94
200920RakutenJPPLFgn156.7142.332524631189.21705149134301717037711.1238.10.62.08.13.98
201021RakutenJPPLFgn116.6472.5020200810155.0159474393211195016431.2329.20.51.96.93.72
201122RakutenJPPLFgn195.7921.27272701460226.1171353282702415078660.8756.80.31.19.68.93
201223RakutenJPPLFgn104.7141.8722220830173.0160453641901692046961.0358.30.21.08.88.89
201324RakutenJPPLFgn2401.0001.2728271821212.0168353063201833098220.9437.10.31.47.85.72
7 Seasons9935.7392.301751721531831315.0118236733666275612383114053241.1088.10.51.98.54.50

Japanese Leagues Pitching

 DARVISH'S STATISTICS
YearAgeTmLgLevAffWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFWHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
200518Nippon HamJPPLFgn55.5003.531414021094.19737377481523024101.5379.30.74.65.01.08
200619Nippon HamJPPLFgn125.7062.8925240320149.21285548126401156156271.2837.70.73.86.91.80
200720Nippon HamJPPLFgn155.7501.8226261230207.21234842949121013047900.8285.30.42.19.14.29
200821Nippon HamJPPLFgn164.8001.8825241020200.21364442114402089147640.8976.10.52.09.34.73
200922Nippon HamJPPLFgn155.7501.732323820182.0118363594501676057010.8965.80.42.28.33.71
201023Nippon HamJPPLFgn128.6001.78262501020202.0158484054702227068051.0157.00.22.19.94.72
201124Nippon HamJPPLFgn186.7501.44282801060232.01564237536027661108850.8286.10.21.410.77.67
7 Seasons9338.7101.991671640551801268.191631028158333212505033649820.9856.50.42.48.93.75
The Yankees hope that resident Japanese veteran pitcher, Hiroki Kuroda will help ease Tanaka into the MLB. Tanaka will not have much of a grace period to figure out the transition. The Yankees need him to be a great #2 pitcher. Yankee fans are not known for their patience and with a 22 million dollar salary, I cannot blame them.

Here is the Yankees projected lineup/statistics as of Mid-January. I do not see too many changes or surprises out of the farm system.

LineupPlayerPOSTeamABRHRRBISBAVGOBPSLGOPSFVal
1Jacoby EllsburyOFNYY567841359380.2820.3380.4270.765$22
2Derek JeterSSNYY3785463860.2860.3450.3810.726$-6
3Carlos BeltranOFNYY47270207640.2800.3420.4700.813$12
4Mark Teixeira1BNYY43966247330.2440.3390.4620.801$6
5Brian McCannCatcherNYY48562237620.2580.3380.4410.779$12
6Alfonso SorianoDHNYY44356226990.2460.2980.4540.752$2
7Kelly Johnson3BNYY37047134680.2300.3080.3860.695$-10
8Brian Roberts2BNYY2493062840.2530.3190.3820.700$-23
9Brett GardnerOFNYY51771856270.2650.3450.3910.736$6


Possible Starters

StarterPlayerPOSTeamIPWLERAWHIPKBBFVal
1CC SabathiaSPNYY1961293.811.2816856$7
2Masahiro TanakaSPNYY20013103.561.1615740$14
3Hiroki KurodaSPNYY1861293.771.2213944$7
4Ivan NovaSPNYY19211103.941.3415463$2
5David PhelpsSPNYY146884.251.3812958$-3
6Michael PinedaSPNYY87644.141.297731$-3
7Adam WarrenSPNYY107664.461.507943$-9

Closers/Setup

PlayerPOSTeamIPWLSavesERAWHIPKBBFVal
David RobertsonRPNYY6243282.761.157321$9
Shawn KelleyRPNYY623333.631.317025$-3
Matt ThorntonRPNYY603313.451.335319$-4
The starting lineup looks balanced with medium power and two speedsters at each end. Brian McCann, 29 is the only starter under 30.  To be fair, McCann's knees resemble more of a retired NFL linebacker than a 17mil/year catcher. The lineup is tied together loosely with show strings. Utility Bench Player, Brendan Ryan will give them a great defensive boost when Jeter needs to sit.

The Yankees have a better team than last year, but their division only got better. Tampa Bay's young  pitching staff will have another year under their belt and expect them to deal former Cy Young pitcher David Price if the right offer comes across their desk. The defending champion Red Sox still come back with most of their key parts and will get a full season for emerging phenom, Xander Bogaerts. Jackie Bradley Jr. will have his chance to be an everyday center fielder. The Yankees did all they could do this offseason. Will it be enough? We will have to wait and see because I would be lying if I told you last spring I saw the Red Sox winning the championship. Oh, his best pitch you ask? Splitter that falls off faster than Justin Bieber's pants.

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